Analysis

Just another WordPress weblog

Analysis header image 1

Quick Licks and Clicks on the Economy (1)

December 21st, 2009 · Economy, Politics

Based on latest media reports, here are some of my thoughts and observations.

The Copenhagen Accord seeks a reduction in greenhouse gas emissions of 50% versus 1990 levels by 2050. China, India, Brazil and the U.S. – all outside the Kyoto Agreement, for one reason or another – have been brought under the latest clean air “umbrella.” Copenhagen remains a considerable distance away from being a formal treaty.

New technologies that have greatly raised reserve estimates for natural gas must mean a push for infrastructure to support conversion of trucks and other shipping methods. Natural gas supply outlets along major highways will be built and there will be government incentives for haulage firms to convert their fleets. Encana will be a leader in these efforts.

The U.S. will soon have improved health care, but there will not be a “public” option (i.e., no public sector provider). This is a big disappointment to left-leaning purists in the Democratic party. This may hurt the vote in next November’s mid-term elections. One would think that the left would still support the Democrats over the Republicans, but there are two problems with this logic. First, voter turn-out in the mid-terms is traditionally weak. Second, the Republican core is likely to be more energized this time around than the Democratic core.

Some analysts are still worried about deflation. This is based on the extremes of excess capacity that are still evident on plant floors and in offices. And it arises from the fact that credit availability remains greatly reduced versus earlier times. What is fails to take into account is the incredible resilience of the American business system and the work ethic of American labor.

Somebody has to do a better and more aggressive job of getting the message out to the world that Alberta’s Heavy Oil is not the Super Villain when it comes to climate change. Canada accounts for only about 2% of world dirty air emissions and the Tar Sands for only about 5% of the 2%. That’s hardly earth shattering. I have also seen where the land mass covered by open pit bitument mining is about half the size of Edmonton. Again, considering the vast expanses of this great land, that’s a pittance.

Finally, Queens Park in Ontario appears to be on a path of privatization to lower its growing and alarming debt. The three principle public bodies that are up for divestiture would seem to be: 1) the lottery and gaming corportation; 2) the Liquor Control Board of Ontario; and 3) Hydro One which distributes electricity in the province. The expectation is that Hydro One will be the first to go. The other two make more money for the government. Also, with 1) and 2) there are entrenched regulatory problems to overcome.

That’s it for now.

→ No CommentsTags: ···

Everything Else

December 20th, 2009 · Uncategorized

Hi everyone. This is another channel that I am opening on my blog site. Here’s where I will post my economic, political and other comments of a more general nature. I can see me even getting into movie reviews or some social commentary. It should be fun.

However, I do want to keep my short stories quite separate from this area. Therefore, they will stay on their own channel on this blogsite. That will retain their “purity” so to speak.

→ No CommentsTags:

Low capacity utilization rates will hold back industrial investment

December 19th, 2009 · Uncategorized

The good news about Canadian capacity utilization rates in the third quarter of this year resided at the manufacturing sub-sector level.

Plant floor usage increased in 11 of the 21 sub-categories.

Furthermore, in the sectors where there were declines in utilization rates, the rate of cutback was generally much lower than between quarters in the depths of the recession (from the fourth quarter of last year through the second quarter of this year).

The three most notable declining industries were: primary metals (from 61.3% in Q2 to 58.1% in Q3), fabricated metal products (from 63.6% to 61.3%) and machinery manufacturing.

Weakness in both residential and non-residential capital spending played a key role in reducing usage rates in the first two categories.

In primary metals, steel production got a boost from auto demand. But the aluminum industry is suffering along with flagging aerospace sales.

The increase in value of the Canadian dollar versus the greenback has hurt machinery and equipment export sales.

As the U.S. and Canadian recoveries proceed, the capacity utilization rates of many of these industries will firm up.

Usage rates rise when demand increases and/or capacity is reduced.

Some of the latter will continue as firms rationalize to improve and re-position operations. Many companies have achieved success in maintaining profit levels through manpower reductions.

Current extremely low interest rates, improving profits and reviving stock markets should be positive for industrial sector investments.

Before this translates into dollars spent, however, significant progress will need to be made in raising capacity utilization rates.

For raw materials industries, the initiating factor will be further upticks in world, and especially Chinese, demand.

→ No CommentsTags:

Hello world!

August 11th, 2009 · Uncategorized

Welcome to WordPress. This is your first post. Edit or delete it, then start blogging!

→ 1 CommentTags: